Luck of the Draw: Analysing Stall Draw Bias at Epsom Downs

Introduction

Introduction:

Stall draw bias in horse racing is an important factor that often fails to cross the punters’ mind when trying to pick a winner. In simple terms, stall draw bias refers to a potential advantage or disadvantage a horse is given by springing from their elected gate number. The lowest stall number is usually allocated to the closest stall to the inside running rail (known as the ‘inside draw’), with the highest stall number being that of the stall furthest from the inside rail (known as the ‘wide draw’). Stall draws have differing degrees of impact at each racecourse around the UK. This article will focus on the impact of the draw at Newmarket, which provides an interesting place for analysis due to its two courses (July and Rowley Mile) and the wide variety of race distances that are hosted throughout the Spring and Summer months. The goal of this article is to analyse whether or not horses gain an advantage (or disadvantage) based on which stall number they are given.

How Stall Draw Bias Can Impact Race Outcomes:

1. Track and Course Layout: On courses and race distances that include bends, an inside draw can be favourable as it allows the horse to cover less ground, as they are closer to the inside running rail. On the other hand, a wide draw is often seen as a disadvantage due to the fact horses have to travel a greater distance to get around the bend. For straight courses (often with shorter race distances) factors such as pace and rail positioning affect stall bias rather than track curvature. Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course has historically shown trends where certain parts of the track are more favourable, as we will explore later on.
2. Race Distance: The assumption is that short race distances (known as ‘sprints’, up to 6f in distance) display a more pronounced bias as there is less time to recover from a poor starting position. Again an inside draw is often advantageous in these races. For longer races (7f+), the bias is less prominent as there is more time and ground to recover from a poor position out of the stalls. However, stall bias can still affect a horses’ chances if they fail to settle into a good early rhythm.
3. The Going (Ground Conditions): More extreme ground (soft or heavy) can exaggerate stall bias if the track drains unevenly, leading to better ground on one part of the track, giving an advantage to horses drawn on that side.
4. Pace and Running Style: A horse’s natural pace can either enhance or neutralise a stall draw bias. For example, if a race lacks early pace, an inside draw can be advantageous for a front-runner who can dictate the pace from the lead. If there is a strong pace bias towards one side of the track, held-up horses may benefit from a stronger tow into the race.
5. Field Size: Stall draw bias is often more prominent in larger fields, due to crowding out effects preventing some horses from getting a clear run as they are boxed in.

Track Layout at Epsom Downs

Epsom consists of an anticlockwise track of distance 1m 4f, and unlike most tracks is not a full circle track. One looping left handed turn with two sharpish turns initially suggests a low draw is advantageous. Sprint races of 5f are run down the straight only.

Map of Epsom Downs Racecourse

This article will call upon historical race results from a 10-year period (2015-2024, or 10 races) in order to deliver an answer as to the degree of stall draw bias at Epsom. For the data analysis, variables will include the likes of going conditions, odds, race distance, field size, and of course stall number. Data will be drawn from three of the biggest races (prize money wise) on the course, ensuring that each race covers a different race distance to provide a wider perception of the findings. Statistical software package STATA will be used to manipulate and visualise the data.

Analysis

The Derby

The Derby Stakes, also known as the Derby or the Epsom Derby, is a Group 1 flat horse race in England open to three-year-old colts and fillies. It is run at Epsom Downs Racecourse in Surrey on the first Saturday of June each year, over a distance of one mile, four furlongs and 10 yards (2,423 metres), or about 1½ miles, and is usually run by a medium sized field. It was first run in 1780. It is the richest flat race in British racing, worth over £900,000 to the winner this year.

Base Overview

Key Trends over the past 10 runnings:

• Stalls 1, 10 and 12 have all registered 2 winners
• Only stall 1 from stalls 1-6 has had a winner
• Stalls 7-10 have had half of all winners
• Stalls 5, 6, 7, 10 and 14 have a top 3 SR of 30%+
• Stalls 1, 2, 6, 8 and 14 have a top 5 SR of 50%+

Princess Elizabeth Stakes

The Princess Elizabeth Stakes is a Group 3 flat horse race in Great Britain open to fillies and mares aged three years or older. It is run at Epsom Downs over a distance of 1 mile and 113 yards (1,713 metres), with a small field, and it is scheduled to take place each year in early June. In 2025 the race is worth a total of £100,000, with just over £56,000 for the winner.

Base Overview

Key Trends over past 10 runnings:

• Stalls 2 & 5 are the only with 2 winners
• Winners have been well spread throughout stalls 1-8
• When used, stalls 9, 10 & 11 have had little success
• Stalls 2, 4, 5, 7 and 8 boast a top 3 SR of 40%+, with stall 7 being the only at or above 50%

Epsom Dash

The Epsom Dash is a flat handicap horse race in Great Britain open to horses aged three years or older. It is run at Epsom over a distance of 5 furlongs (1,006 metres), with a large field, and it is scheduled to take place each year in early June. In 2025 the race is going to be worth over £50,000 to the winner.

Base Overview

Key trends over the past 10 runnings:

• Only stall 1 has recorded multiple winners (2), which is even more impressive when considering it has only been used for 8 of the past 10 races
• Winners are well spread across throughout stalls
• Stall 3 has the worst record, with nothing to show at all from the past 10 races
• Stalls 1, 2, 7, 12, 17 and 20 boast the best top 3 SRs, at or above 30%
• Only stalls 2, 17 and 18 have top 6 SRs of 50%+
• Stall 17 has the best top 3 and top 6 SRs, at 40% and 60% respectively