The Cheltenham Festiva, is the biggest week in the National Hunt racing calendar, where the best horses, trainers and jockeys come together across four days of top class racing. While every race has its own story, history often leaves clues about the type of horse most likely to succeed, statistically at least. In this article, I analyse the last ten editions (where possible) of each race at the festival to identify key trends, and compare these trends to this year’s entries.
Tuesday
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Key Trends:
- Winner last time out – 8/10
- Single digit start price – 9/10
- Aged 5 or 6 – 9/10
- Officially rated 150 or higher – 7/10
- Top speed rating of at least 150 – 7/10
Trend-fitters:
- Old Park Star – 4/5
- Talk The Talk – 4/5
Other trends to note:
- The most successful jockey/trainer combination has been Nico De Boinville & Nicky Henderson, with 3 of the last 10 winners
- Irish trained – 6/10
Tricast trend prediction:
1st OLD PARK STAR 2nd TALK THE TALK 3rd SOBER GLORY
Arkle Chase
Key Trends:
- Winner last time out – 8/10
- SP favourite – 7/10
- Aged 6 or 7 – 9/10
- Officially rated 150 or higher – 9/10
- Top speed rating of at least 150 – 7/10
Trend-fitters:
- Kopek Des Bordes – 4/5
- Lulamba – 3/5
- Steel Ally – 3/5
Other trends to note:
- Willie Mullins has trained half of past 10 winners
- Only one mare has one this race since 1980 (Put the Kettle On, 2020)
Tricast trend prediction:
1st KOPEK DES BORDES 2nd LULAMBA 3rd STEEL ALLY
Fred Winter
Key Trends:
- Failed to win last time out – 7/10
- Carried at least 11st – 8/10
- Irish trained – 8/10
- Top speed rating of at least 100
- Officially rated 125 or higher – 9/10
Trend-fitters:
- Saratoga – 5/5
- Munsif – 5/5
- Ole Ole – 5/5
- Barbizon – 5/5
- Quinta Do Lago – 5/5
- Hardy Stuff – 5/5
Other trends to note:
- Gordon Elliott has trained 3 of the last 10 runners, and is the most successful trainer in this race
- Mark Walsh has ridden the winner in 3 of the last 10
Tricast trend prediction:
1st SARATOGA 2nd BARBIZON 3rd HARDY STUFF
Ultima Handicap Chase
Key Trends:
- Failed to win last time out – 7/10
- Officially rated 140 or higher – 9/10
- Aged 7, 8 or 9 – 8/10
- British trained – 10/10
- Carrying less than top weight – 9/10
Trend-fitters:
- Jagwar – 5/5
- Myretown – 5/5
- Handstands – 5/5
- Hyland – 5/5
- Johnnywho – 5/5
- Konfusion – 5/5
- Resplendent Grey – 5/5
- Leave of Absence – 5/5
- Blow Your Wad – 5/5
- The Doyen Chief – 5/5
Other trends to note:
- Top speed rating of at least 100 – 6/10
- Single digit start price – 6/10
Tricast trend prediction:
1st JAGWAR 2nd HYLAND 3rd MYRETOWN
Champion Hurdle
Key Trends:
- Won last time out – 9/10
- Officially rated 157 or higher – 9/10
- Top speed rating of at least 130 – 8/10
- Aged 6 or 7 – 7/10
- SP favourite – 7/10
Trend-fitters:
- Lossiemouth – 4/5
- The New Lion – 4/5
- Brighterdaysahead – 4/5
Other trends to note:
- Neither Dan Skelton nor Gordon Elliott have trained a winner in this race, ever
- Only two five year olds have won this race this century
Tricast trend prediction:
1st LOSSIEMOUTH 2nd THE NEW LION 3rd BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD
Festival Plate Handicap
Key Trends:
- Won last time out – 7/10
- Officially rated 140 or higher – 9/10
- Top speed rating of at least 120 – 7/10
Trend-fitters:
- Down Memory Lane – 3/3
- No Questions Asked – 3/3
- Guard Your Dreams – 3/3
Other trends to note:
- The first four home last year carried no more than 11st 1lb
- Irish trainers have won half of the previous 10 races, but before that didn’t have a winner sine 1982
Tricast Trend Prediction:
1st No Questions Asked 2nd Down Memory Lane 3rd Guard Your Dreams
National Hunt Challenge Cup
Key Trends:
- Failed to win last time out – 8/10
- Officially rated at least 140 – 9/10
- Aged 6, 7 or 8 – 8/10
- Irish trained – 7/10
- Single figure start price – 7/10
Trend-fitters:
- Wade Out – 4/5
- Backmersackme – 3/5
- Kurasso Blue – 3/5
- Union Station – 3/5
Other trends to note:
- 5 of the last 10 winners were the SP fav or 2nd fav
- Last year’s winner trained by Rebecca Curtis was the first non-Irish trained winner for 5 years
Tricast Trend Prediction:
1st Wade Out 2nd Backmersackme 3rd Kurasso Blue
Wednesday
Turner’s Novices’ Hurdle
Key Trends:
- Winner on previous two starts – 10/10
- Officially rated 147 or higher – 10/10
- Top speed rating of at least 110 – 9/10
- Aged 6 – 8/10
- Irish trained – 8/10
Trend-fitters:
- Skylight Hustle – 5/5
- King Rasko Grey – 4/5
- I’ll Sort That – 4/5
Other trends to note:
- 5 of the last 10 have been won by the SP fav, and 8 of the last ten have been won by odds of 5/1 or shorter
- Willie Mullins has trained the winner in 3 of the past 4
Tricast Trend Predictor:
1st Skylight Hussle 2nd King Rasko Grey 3rd I’ll Sort That
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
Key Trends:
- Won last time out – 7/10
- Aged 7 – 9/10
- Officially rated 150 or higher – 10/10
- Top speed rating of at least 110
Trend-fitters:
- Romeo Coolio – 4/4
- Final Demand – 3/4
- Kaid d’Authie – 3/4
- Wendigo – 3/4
- Koktail Divin – 3/4
- The Big Westerner – 3/4
- Western Fold – 3/4
- Oscars Brother – 3/4
- Argento Boy – 3/4
- Joystick – 3/4
- Gold Dancer – 3/4
Other trends to note:
- 5 of the last 10 favourites have won
- SP of 4/1 or shorter – 7/10
- Willie Mullins is seeking a hat trick in this race – having also trained the winner in 3 of the last 5
Tricast Trend Prediction:
1st Romeo Coolio 2nd Final Demand 3rd Wendigo
BetMGM Cup Hurdle
Key Trends:
- Failed to win last time out – 7/10
- Priced at 10/1 or bigger – 7/10
- Carrying at least 11st – 8/10
- Officially rated 140 or higher – 9/10
- Top speed rating of at least 100 – 8/10
- Aged 7 or 8 – 8/10
Trend-fitters:
- The Yellow Clay – 6/6
- Jingko Blue – 6/6
- Lucky Place – 6/6
Other trends to note:
- Not run for at least a month prior 8/10
- No more than 4 runs in the season so far
1st Jingko Blue 2nd The Yellow Clay 3rd Lucky Place
Cross Country Chase
Key Trends:
- Irish trained – 8/10
- Officially rated 150 or higher – 7/10
- Aged 8 or older – 9/10
- SP of 7/1 or shorter – 9/10
Trend-fitters:
- Favori De Champdou – 4/4
- Stumptown – 4/4
- Desertmore House – 3/4
Other trends to note:
- Top 3 finish in last two starts – 9/10
- Owned by either Gigginstown or McManus – 8/10
Tricast Trend Prediction:
1st Favori De Champdou 2nd Stumptown 3rd Desertmore House
Queen Mother Champion Chase
Key Trends:
- Top 3 last time out – 8/10
- Officially rated 155 or higher – 10/10
- Top speed rating of at least 150 – 8/10
- Aged 8 or 9 – 7/10
- Irish trained – 8/10
Trend-fitters:
- Majborough – 4/5
- L’Eau du Sud – 4/5
- Il Etait Temps – 4/5
- Irish Panther – 4/5
- Solness – 4/5
- Found a Fifty – 4/5
Other trends to note:
- Previous winner at the festival – 6/10
- Priced at 5/1 or shorter – 6/10
Tricast Trend Prediction:
1st Majborough 2nd L’Eau du Sud 3rd Solness
Grand Annual Chase
Key Trends:
- Failed to win last time out – 9/10
- Officially rated 135 or higher – 10/10
- No older than 9 – 8/10
- Top speed rating of at least 115 – 9/10
- Winner over distance – 9/10
Trend-fitters:
- Be Aware – 5/5
- Inthepocket – 5/5
- Jazzy Matty – 5/5
- Release the Beast – 5/5
- Addragoole – 5/5
- Jasko Des Dames – 5/5
- Special Cadeau – 5/5
- Break My Soul – 5/5
- Relieved of Duties – 5/5
- Rubaud – 5/5
- King of Kingsfield – 5/5
- Western Diego – 5/5
- The Other Mozzie – 5/5
- Martator – 5/5
Other trends to note:
- Previous winner at Cheltenham – 4/10
- Priced at 10/1 or bigger – 7/10
Tricast Trend Prediction:
1st Jazzy Matty 2nd Be Aware 3rd Inthepocket
Champion Bumper
Key Trends:
- Won last time out – 10/10
- Unbeaten under rules – 7/10
- Aged 5 or 6 – 10/10
- Officially rated 120 or higher – 10/10
- Priced 10/1 or shorter – 8/10
Trend-fitters:
- Love Sign d’Aunou – 5/5
- Keep Him Company – 5/5
Other trends to note:
- Willie Mullins trained – 6/10
- Irish trained – 9/10
Tricast Trend Prediction:
1st Love Sign d’Aunou 2nd Keep Him Company 3rd Quiryn
Thursday
Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
Key Trends:
- Winner last time out – 7/10
- Aged 5 or 6 – 10/10
- Irish trained – 7/10
Trend-fitters:
- Bambino Fever – 3/3
- Oldschool Outlaw – 3/3
- Echoing Silence – 3/3
- Future Prospect – 3/3
- Diamond Du Berlais – 3/3
- Amen Kate – 3/3
- Blue Velvet – 3/3
- Louve D’Irlande – 3/3
Other trends to note:
- Willie Mullins trained – 5/10
- Top speed rating of at least 120 – 9/10
Tricast Trend Prediction:
1st Bambino Fever 2nd Future Prospect 3rd Echoing Silence
Jack Richards Novices’ Chase
Key Trends:
- Winner last time out – 9/10
- Officially rated at least 150 – 8/10
- Top speed rating of at least 140 – 8/10
- Aged 7 – 8/10
- SP of 10/1 or shorter – 10/10
Trend-fitters:
- Sixmilebridge – 5/5
- Koktail Divin – 4/5
- Gold Dancer – 4/5
Other trends to note:
- Only one Irish trained winner in the past 5 years
- 5 fav/joint fav winners in the past 10 years
Tricast Trend Prediction:
1st Sixmilebridge 2nd Koktail Divin 3rd Gold Dancer
Mares Hurdle
Key Trends:
- Top 2 finish last time out – 9/10
- Winner on at least one of previous two starts – 8/10
- Aged 5, 6 or 7 – 9/10
- Irish trained – 8/10
- Officially rated at least 140 – 10/10
Trend-fitters:
- Wodhooh – 5/5
- Jade De Grugy – 5/5
- Feet of a Dancer – 5/5
Other trends to note:
- Past three editions have all been won by the favourite
- Willie Mullins is seeking a hat trick having trained the previous two winners
Tricast Trend Prediction:
1st Wodhooh 2nd Jade De Grugy 3rd Feet of a Dancer
Stayers’ Hurdle
Key Trends:
- Aged 6, 7 or 8 – 8/10
- Top 3 finish on last appearance – 7/10
- Officially rated 150 or higher – 9/10
- Top speed rating of at least 120 – 8/10
- Previously ran at the festival – 8/10
Trend-fitters:
- Ma Shantou – 5/5
- Ballyburn 5/5
- Impose Toi 5/5
Other trends to note:
- Irish trained – 7/10
- Previous winner of a graded hurdle over at least 3m
Tricast Trend Prediction:
1st Impose Toi 2nd Ballyburn 3rd Ma Shantou
Ryanair Chase
Key Trends:
- Top 3 finish last time out – 9/10
- Won at Cheltenham previously – 8/10
- Officially rated 165 or higher – 8/10
- Aged 7, 8 or 9 – 10/10
- Irish trained – 8/10
Trend-fitters:
- Fact to File – 5/5
- Banbridge – 4/5
- Impaire Et Passe – 4/5
Other trends to note:
- Willie Mullins trained winner – 6/10
- Failed to win last time out – 6/10
Tricast Trend Prediction:
1st Fact to File 2nd Impaire Et Passe 3rd Banbridge
Pertempts Handicap Hurdle
Key Trends:
- Failed to win last time out – 9/10
- Officially rated 135 or higher – 8/10
- Aged 6, 7 or 8 – 8/10
- Priced 10/1 or bigger – 7/10
Trend-fitters:
- Impose Toi – 4/4
- Minella Sixo – 4/4
- Millstream Lady – 4/4
Other trends to note:
- Top 4 finish last time out – 7/10
- Had previously failed to win over 3m – 6/10
Tricast Trend Predictor:
1st Impose Toi 2nd Minella Sixo 3rd Millstream Lady
Kim Muir Handicap Chase
Key Trends
- Failed to win last time out – 9/10
- Aged 7, 8 or 9 – 8/10
- Officially rated 130 or higher – 10/10
- Top speed rating of at least 100 – 8/10
- Carrying at least 11st
Trend-fitters
- Jeriko Du Reponet – 5/5
- Waterford Whispers – 5/5
- Prends Garde A Toi – 5/5
- Road to Home – 5/5
- The Enabler – 5/5
- Weveallbeencaught – 5/5
- Daily Present – 5/5
- Sandor Clegane – 5/5
- Il Rodoto – 5/5
- Excello – 5/5
- Insurrection – 5/5
- Uncle Bert – 5/5
- Olympic Man – 5/5
- Cave Court – 5/5
Other trends to note:
- Irish trained winner in 6 of the last 7 races
- Maximum 10 runs over fences – 9/10
Tricast Trend Prediction:
1st Jeriko Du Reponet 2nd Waterford Whispers 3rd Prends Garde A Toi
Friday
Triumph Hurdle
Key Trends:
- Winner over hurdles in career – 8/10
- Top 3 finish last time out – 8/10
- Irish trained – 8/10
- Has an official rating – 7/10
Trend-fitters:
- Selma De Vary – 4/4
- Highland Crystal – 4/4
- Madness d’Elle – 4/4
Other trends to note:
- Won at least half of all starts over hurdles – 8/10
- Start price of 10/1 or shorter – 7/10
Tricast Trend Prediction:
1st Selma De Vary 2nd Proactif 3rd Highland Crystal
County Hurdle
Key Trends:
- Top 3 finish last time out – 8/10
- Officially rated 130 or higher – 9/10
- Top speed rating of at least 110 – 9/10
- Trained by Willie Mullins or Dan Skelton – 9/10
Trend-fitters:
- Karbau – 4/4
- Sinnatra – 4/4
- Absurde – 4/4
- Jump Allen – 4/4
Other trends to note:
- Aged 5 or 6 – 7/10
- Max weight carried 11st 1lb – 7/10
Tricast Trend Prediction:
1st Sinnatra 2nd Karbau 3rd Absurde
Mares Chase
Key Trends:
- SP fav or 2nd fav – 4/5
- Winner last time out – 4/5
- Officially rated 150 or higher – 4/5
- Aged 7 or 8 – 4/5
- Irish trained – 5/5
Trend-fitters:
- Dinoblue – 4/5
- Jade De Grugy – 4/5
- Spindleberry – 3/5
- Only by Night – 3/5
- The Big Westeerner – 3/5
Other trends to note:
- JP McManus owned – 4/5
- Carrying at least 11st 5lbs
Tricast Trend Prediction:
1st Dinoblue 2nd Jade De Grugy 3rd Spindleberry
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
Key Trends:
- Aged 6 or 7 – 9/10
- Officially rated – 8/10
- Top speed rating of at least 120 – 9/10
- Start price of 10/1 or bigger – 8/10
Trend-fitters:
- The Passing Wife – 4/4
- Kazansky – 4/4
- Kripticjim – 4/4
- Fruit De Mer – 4/4
- King’s Bucks – 4/4
- Moneygarrow – 4/4
- Riskaway – 4/4
- Shuttle Diplomacy – 4/4
- Ubatuba – 4/4
- Johnny’s Jury – 4/4
- Kicour La – 4/4
- Minella Emperor – 4/4
- The Price of Peace – 4/4
- Kasino Des Mottes – 4/4
- Swindon Village – 4/4
Other trends to note:
- Top 3 finish last time out – 7/10
- Irish trained – 7/10
Tricast Trend Prediction:
1st The Passing Wife 2nd Kazanksy 3rd Fruit De Mer
The Gold Cup
Key Trends:
- Aged, 7, 8 or 9 – 10/10
- Top 3 finish last time out – 8/10
- Officially rated 164 or higher – 9/10
- Irish trained – 8/10
- Start price of 10/1 or shorter – 9/10
Trend-fitters:
- Gaelic Warrior – 5/5
- The Jukebox Man – 4/5
- Inothewayurthinkin – 4/5
- Haiti Couleurs – 4/5
- Spillane’s Tower – 4/5
Other trends to note:
- Previous Grade 1 Chase winner – 9/10
- Previously won over at least 3m – 9/10
Tricast Trend Prediction:
1st Gaelic Warrior 2nd The Jukebox Man 3rd Haiti Couleurs
St James’s Place Hunters’ Chase
Key Trends:
- Aged 10 or older – 8/10
- Top 3 finish last time out – 8/10
- Officially rated 120 or higher – 9/10
- Top speed rating of at least 120 – 9/10
Trend-fitters:
- Wonderwall – 4/4
- Panda Boy – 4/4
- Gracchus De Balme – 4/4
Other trends to note:
- There has been three back-to-back winners since 2012
- Priced at 10/1 or bigger – 6/10
Tricast Trend Prediction:
1st Wonderwall 2nd Panda Boy 3rd Gracchus De Balme
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle
Key Trends:
- Aged 5 or 6 – 8/10
- Winner in the season – 8/10
- Top 3 finish last time out – 8/10
- Officially rated 137 or higher – 10/10
- Top speed rating of at least 100 – 9/10
Trend-fitters:
- Its Bilbo – 5/5
- Open Secret – 5/5
- A Pai De Nom – 4/5
- Fiercely Proud – 4/5
- Andashan – 4/5
- Zanndabad – 4/5
- Stede Bonnet – 4/5
- Grimaud – 4/5
- Saint Le Fort – 4/5
- Turndlightsdownlow – 4/5
Other trends to note:
- Gordon Elliott seeking a hattrick
- Irish trained – 7/10
Tricast Trend Prediction:
1st Open Secret 2nd Its Bilbo 3rd A Pai De Nom *For trends that include odds-based facts, odds for this year’s runner were taken as at 9:00pm 08/03/26. Trends are not a clear indicator of results and should be combined with other factors when making a betting decision. It’s a busy week, always gamble responsibly.