Introduction
The Grand National is one of the most iconic and unpredictable races in world horse racing, held annually at Aintree Racecourse. Run over an extended distance of around 4 miles and featuring 30 fences, it is the ultimate test of stamina, jumping ability and resilience like no other race. Kown for the large, competitive fields and famous obstacles, the race often produces large odd winners.
Predicting the winner of the Grand National is notoriously difficult, with its massive field, unique distance and frequent market shocks meaning no horse can ever be anything close to a cert. Rather than assessing every contender individually like I have done previously, this will be a more data-led approach, by looking at historic trends. By analysing data from the past 10 and 25 years of this race, we can begin to identify the characteristics that successful horses tend to share – helping to narrow down the field and focus on those runners that best fit those trends. To be considered a significant trend, it must fit at least 80% of the past winners – so 8 of the past 10, or 20 of the past 25.
Previous Winners This Century
Key Stats From The Previous Winners
Key Trends of the Previous Winners
So, who fits the trends?
Trend-fitters of the past 10 years:
- Johnnywho
- Monty’s Star
- Captain Cody
- Oscars Brother
- Gorgeous Tom
- Stellar Story
Trend-fitters of the past 25 years:
- Johnnywho
- Captain Cody
- Oscars Brother
- Gorgeous Tom
- Final Orders
- Stellar Story
- Favori De Champdou
- Marble Sands
- Top of the Bill
- Answer to Kayf
- Beauport
That means that just five of the 34 competitors fit the trends of the past 10 and 25 years, thus the data suggests that the winner will be one of these:
- JOHNNYWHO 12/1
- CAPTAIN CODY 16/1
- OSCARS BROTHER 18/1
- GORGEOUS TOM 22/1
- STELLAR STORY 28/1
I’d just like to wrap up this analysis with a disclaimer that I think this race is a lottery, and you would stand just a good a chance picking your lucky number or maybe some silks you like the look of, and most importantly it is not worth paying ANY ‘tipster’ for their selection in this race, no matter how much they believe the horse ‘should go well’. Best of luck with whichever horse you decide to back!