The main aim of my ‘Horses to Watch’ series is beating the market start price (SP) by finding value in the betting market the night before the race. I use a combination of statistical analysis and AI value-modelling to find a horses’ implied probability (% chance of winning the race based on stats) and compare that to current odds – looking for horses that are overvalued. I focus on the lesser-glamorous races (i.e Class 4s & 5s etc) as that’s where the value often is found – often because these races receive less betting money than the bigger races, so the market is less volatile. Whilst the aim of this game is not primarily profit, statistical variance suggests that if you can consistently find value in the markets (by beating the SP) you will be profitable.
Story of the month:
- 18 selections, 16 of which the market SP was beaten. This represents a 89% strike rate, the highest of any month so far.
- Average odds of 9.42 (~17/2)
- On average, early odds beat the market SP by 44% across the month – another monthly record
- 2 selections beat the SP by at least 100%:
- ASH WEDNESDAY was picked out at odds of 10.00 (9/1) and went off at 4.50 (7/2), 122% value found – unfortunately the performance did not match
- THECOFFEEPODDOT CO was picked out at 6.50 (11/2) and went off at 3.25 (9/4), 100% value found – though this was aided by a number of non-runners – and won handsomely (25p R4 applied to the P/L)
- 3 winners at 6/1 (9/2 SP), 14/1 (8/1 SP) and 11/2 (9/4 SP)
- 5 placed at 11/1 (10/1 SP), 14/1 (10/1 SP), 17/2 (9/2 SP), 11/2 (9/2 SP) and 15/2 (5/1 SP)
- Profit from the early odds was 7.13 units higher than at the market SP, with the early odds making a profit of 6.63 units and the market SP would have returned a loss of 0.69 units, highlighting the importance of finding value.
