Luck of the Draw: Analysing Stall Draw Bias at Doncaster

Introduction

Stall draw bias in horse racing is an important factor that often fails to cross the punters’ mind when trying to pick a winner. In simple terms, stall draw bias refers to a potential advantage or disadvantage a horse is given by springing from their elected gate number. The lowest stall number is usually allocated to the closest stall to the inside running rail (known as the ‘inside draw’), with the highest stall number being that of the stall furthest from the inside rail (known as the ‘wide draw’). Stall draws have differing degrees of impact at each racecourse around the UK. This article will focus on the impact of the draw at Newmarket, which provides an interesting place for analysis due to its two courses (July and Rowley Mile) and the wide variety of race distances that are hosted throughout the Spring and Summer months. The goal of this article is to analyse whether or not horses gain an advantage (or disadvantage) based on which stall number they are given.

How Stall Draw Bias Can Impact Race Outcomes:

1. Track and Course Layout: On courses and race distances that include bends, an inside draw can be favourable as it allows the horse to cover less ground, as they are closer to the inside running rail. On the other hand, a wide draw is often seen as a disadvantage due to the fact horses have to travel a greater distance to get around the bend. For straight courses (often with shorter race distances) factors such as pace and rail positioning affect stall bias rather than track curvature. Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course has historically shown trends where certain parts of the track are more favourable, as we will explore later on.
2. Race Distance: The assumption is that short race distances (known as ‘sprints’, up to 6f in distance) display a more pronounced bias as there is less time to recover from a poor starting position. Again an inside draw is often advantageous in these races. For longer races (7f+), the bias is less prominent as there is more time and ground to recover from a poor position out of the stalls. However, stall bias can still affect a horses’ chances if they fail to settle into a good early rhythm.
3. The Going (Ground Conditions): More extreme ground (soft or heavy) can exaggerate stall bias if the track drains unevenly, leading to better ground on one part of the track, giving an advantage to horses drawn on that side.
4. Pace and Running Style: A horse’s natural pace can either enhance or neutralise a stall draw bias. For example, if a race lacks early pace, an inside draw can be advantageous for a front-runner who can dictate the pace from the lead. If there is a strong pace bias towards one side of the track, held-up horses may benefit from a stronger tow into the race.
5. Field Size: Stall draw bias is often more prominent in larger fields, due to crowding out effects preventing some horses from getting a clear run as they are boxed in.

Track Layout at Doncaster

Doncaster is a large, left-handed, pear-shaped track with a circuit of about 1 mile 7½ furlongs. The home straight is one of the longest in Britain, stretching for nearly 4½ furlongs, which means horses are rarely disadvantaged by needing to come from behind. The bends are sweeping and relatively gentle, giving it a reputation as a fair and galloping track that suits strong-staying types.

For straight-course races (up to 1 mile), horses run down a wide, straight track that allows fields to spread across the course. This can create draw biases depending on ground conditions, but in general Doncaster is considered one of the fairest tracks in the UK.

Map of Doncaster Racecourse

Methodology for Analysis

This article will call upon historical race results from a 10-year period (2015-2024, 10 races, where possible) in order to deliver an answer as to the degree of stall draw bias at Doncaster. Data will be drawn from three of the biggest races (prize money wise) on the course, ensuring that each race covers a different race distance to provide a wider perception of the findings.

Analysis

The St Leger Stakes – The St Leger Stakes is a Group 1 flat horse race in Great Britain open to three-year-old thoroughbred colts and fillies. It is run at Doncaster over a distance of 1 mile, 6 furlongs and 115 yards (2,921 metres), and it is scheduled to take place each year in September.

Established in 1776, the St Leger is the oldest of Britain’s five Classic races. It is the last of the five to be run each year, and its distance is longer than any of the other four. In 2025 the race purse stands at £700,000, with the winner picking up just under £400,000.

The Findings

Key Trends of the past 10 Runnings:

• Average field size of 9.3 runners
• Stall 4 has had the most success, with 3 winners from 10, perhaps unsurprising given this stall has also had 4 SP favourites
• 6 of the past 10 winners have come from the first 5 stalls, however the winners have been relatively spread out across all stalls
• The average beaten lengths for higher stalls is actually lower than that of the lower stalls
• Stall 3 has had the worst success, with no winners and just a 20% strike rate for Top 3 and Top 5 finishes

Graphical Repressentation

Weatherbys Stakes –  The Weatherbys Scientific Stakes is a prestigious 2-year-old contest held on the opening day of Doncaster’s St Leger Festival, typically in early to mid-September. It’s a Group 2 (Class 2), limited to juvenile horses, run over 6 furlongs and 111 yards (~6½ furlongs) on turf. Total purse: £300,000, with the Winner’s share: approximately £216,245
Fields often include 18–22 runners. The race is run on the straight course, typically under Good to Good/Soft going. Entry weights are determined by sire’s yearling auction value, with penalties for prior group wins.

The Findings

Key Trends of the Past 6 Runnings:

• Average field size of 17.8 runners
• Stall 1 has had the best success, with 2 winners from 6 races, and also the lowest average beaten lengths
• 5 of the 6 winners have come from the first half of the stalls, suggesting a bias for a lower stall draw
• Stall 3 has also been very successful, though a smaller sample size, with 1 winner from 4 races, a 75% strike rate for top 3 finishes and 100% for top 5
• Stalls 16+ have had little success at all
• Stalls 2 and 5 have had no success at all

Graphical Represntation

May Hill Stakes – The May Hill Stakes is a Group 2 flat horse race in Great Britain open to two-year-old fillies. It is run at Doncaster over a distance of 1 mile (1,609 metres), and takes place each year in September. The 2025 purse is worth £120,000, with the winner pocketing just under £70,000.

The Findings

Key Trends of the last 10 runnings:

• Average field size of 8.4 runners
• Stalls 1, 3 and 7 have all posted 2 winners
• 7 winners have come from the first 5 stalls, with each stall having at least one winner, suggesting a lower draw may be favourable
• Of stalls 1-7, only stall 6 has yet to post a winner, and also has the worst top 3 strike rate of these stalls
• Despite having 2 SP favourites, stall 8 has not had a winner
• Average beaten lengths is fairly consistent throughout
• Not enough evidence to suggest all hope is lost with a higher draw, with success coming from stalls 7 and 9

Graphical Representation

Conclusion

An examination of stall draw bias across three key races at Doncaster’s St Leger Festival — the St Leger Stakes, Weatherbys Scientific Stakes, and May Hill Stakes — found little consistent evidence of a strong bias. The track’s long, galloping straight and generally fair layout appear to provide a level playing field for most runners.

There were some indications of a slight advantage for lower-drawn horses in two of the races studied, but this was not strong enough to suggest a systematic or decisive bias. Other factors such as pace, ground conditions, and race tactics likely play a much greater role in determining outcomes at Doncaster.

Overall, the findings reinforce Doncaster’s reputation as one of the fairest racecourses in the UK, where stall position alone is unlikely to be a decisive factor.