The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes is a Group 1 flat horse race in Great Britain open to horses aged three years or older. It is run at Ascot over a distance of 1 mile (1,609 metres), and it is scheduled to take place as part of British Champions Day each year in October. The race has a total prize fund of over £1,000,000.
The Racecard
Previous Winners
Key Trends:
- 6 of the last 10 editions have been won by 3-year-olds (two 4-year-old and two 5-year-old winners)
- Only once has a horse won from stall 5 or lower
- 4 of the last 10 favourites have won
- Just 2 winners at a price above 10/1
- Only Roger Varian and John Gosden have won this more than once in the past 10 years, with no jockey winning more than one.
- 5 of the past 10 winners have had an OR of at least 120, with the other 5 being rated between 110-120. There is equally no pattern in top speed ratings
The Breakdown
- CARL SPACKLER
Has a decent profile and is from a late-season Gosden string that often hits form; a classy operator who will go well if settling is right. Has three Grade 1s to his name in the States but not yet shown the same class this side of the pond. Expect him to be ridden for a late-looking run — can’t be discarded, especially given the trainer’s strike-rate and Buick is a top jockey in great form. Fairly well backed during the week. Distance winner.
- CICERO’S GIFT
A useful operator in pattern company when fresh; looks a typical trainer’s entry with a chance to run well under the right fractions. Won a listed race last time out at Sandown but this would appear too great a task. Distance winner.
- DANCING GEMINI
Has form that suggests he can be competitive when the pace suits; typically needs a strong gallop to show his best. May have each-way claims if he can rediscover the form shown when going a close 2nd when favourite in the Lockinge at Newbury. Longshot on the card but watch any late market moves — could place if conditions play to him. Distance winner.
- DOCKLANDS
Course-and-distance form (including the Queen Anne) gives Docklands an obvious C&D edge; he stays very well for a miler and handles Ascot’s track. Expected to be ridden prominently — a strong showing is likely if he reproduces his best Royal Ascot vibes. Draw shouldn’t be a problem, Marquand has had a poor season by his standards though. Course and distance winner.
- FACTUER CHEVAL
Has a solid record in this event (2nd in each of the last two episodes of this race) and is a proven Group horse; runs his race and will appreciate a good gallop. Likely to be held-up and pounced on late — a contender for a place and not to be underestimated. Has not won for some time and recent form has been lacklustre. Distance winner.
- NEVER SO BRAVE
A punchy, progressive miler who has won at the very highest level this season and has tactical speed. If the race turns into a sprint finish he’ll be very dangerous, but he needs a bit of cover and a sound gallop to produce his best late burst. This year’s champion jockey on board, has every chance. Has won at Ascot twice this season already and is on a 3-win streak. Distance winner.
- QUDDWAH
A classy performer who’s been close in top-level company lately; will be ridden to take a prominent role and has the tactical speed to handle Ascot’s mile. Group 1 form is uninspiring but he has won at Ascot before. Solid form in France. He may be better placed than some in a truly run race and looks one of the more solid big-race bets for a place. Course and distance winner.
- ROSALLION
A consistently high-class miler who has had a frustrating campaign but brings strong Royal Ascot form and looks well-handed for a pronounced finish. Can’t be discounted if getting a clean passage; draw and early position matter for him. Has drifted in the market the past few days. Major seconditis this season, definitely can’t rule out. Course and distance winner.
- ALAKAZI
Another part of the French contingent, a talented 3-yo with natural speed and upside; the weight-for-age concessions help, and he’s shown a good turn of foot. If he handles the step up in company mentally, he could be the one to pick off tired leaders late. Good draw and very solid form shown in Ireland. This is a much bigger ask but he is a progressive type. Distance winner.
- FALLEN ANGEL
A filly in fantastic late-season form with three wins on the bounce — has improved this autumn and looks progressive. She carries a bit less weight than some older colts and could be the value each-way play if the pace is strong; good draw and Karl Burke has had a fantastic season. Plenty to suggest she can be competitive hear. Distance winner.
- FIELD OF GOLD
Clear market favourite after some big seasonal wins and a return to Ascot suits him; he looks the class horse on paper that makes him the one to beat. Key questions are whether he recovers fully from a recent hard race and how the gallop sets up — if there’s a genuine pace he should be in with every chance. If he can bunce back from last time out in the Sussex Stakes he will take some catching. Ascot is one of the few tracks where a wider draw may not me disadvantageous. Course and distance winner.
- MARVELMAN
A high-potential 3-yo who has been improving rapidly; the younger types here can profit from the 3-lb allowance. He’s a bit unexposed over the trip at this level — if he handles the atmosphere he’s a likely place threat and a future target. Appears to prefer softer ground so will need to show more on a quicker surface in stronger competition.
- TAMFANA
A solid, reliable runner who runs consistently; looks more of a place candidate than a win threat in a competitive renewal. Will need to find an extra gear for the finish against a field of mainly strong males, maybe vulnerable if not at her very best. Distance winner.
- THE LION IN WINTER
A progressive type with upside in the ratings who could benefit if the ground is on the quicker side. On paper he’s a dark-horse pick — look for market support and trainer confidence indicators on the day. Has drifted the past few days, slight concern. Needs to find a lot of improvement.
- EXACTLY
A lower-profile runner in the field — useful to keep onside if the market shortens but generally more of a supporting runner in this line-up. Useful as a potential each-way surprise if you like outsiders. Has never won at Ascot nor over 1 mile. Place claims at a stretch.
- JANUARY
A long-odds outsider whose main hope is to outrun his market quote if the leaders collapse; check any last-minute market support but treat as a speculative saver rather than a headline pick. Has had some competitive runs in Group 1s this season but last two runs have been poor, needs to rediscover form if any hope of placing. Like stable mate Exactly, has never won at Ascot nor over 1 mile.
My Thoughts
If Field of Gold is back to his best then he should blow this field away, however he needs to bounce back from a poor showing last time out. Whilst Rosallion has drifted during the week, he is still 2nd favourite. Whilst given his form this season I might back him to finish 2nd, I would not be backing him to win here. I like Never So Brave more than Fallen Angel, both coming of off a hattrick of wins but Oisin on board the former is a massive positive and the latter may be exposed back against the boys. I do like Docklands and backed him in the Queen Anne, but sadly Marquand’s form this year is enough to put me off this time around. I do like Carl Spackler but not so much The Lion in Winter, which has been reflected in the respective odds movements during the week. The former is probably my value pick for the race. Of the outsiders, I think if January can rediscover earlier Group 1 form from this season she has the best chance of placing.
