What is a Handicap?
Much like in other sports – such as golf – handicaps are used in horse racing to try and even the playing field. Horses are made to carry weight such that it slows the ‘better’ horses or gives an advantage to the ‘lesser’ horses in a race to try and make it more competitive. The weights given to each competitor are decided by performances in previous runs, with the role of the handicapper being to calculate these weights in order to give all entries with varying skill levels a chance of running a good race. This system is important to the sport as it makes for fairer racing and a more exciting spectacle of viewers and punters alike.
Official Ratings
A horse’s official rating (OR) is a numerical measure of that horse’s ability, is set by the handicapper and is based on previous career performances. In the UK, official ratings are set by the British Horseracing Authority (BHA). It’s as simple as the higher the rating, the better the horse (that is, in the eyes of the BHA). A horse’s OR is adjusted after each race, with ratings increasing after good runs (not necessarily wins) and decreasing after bad runs. Effectively each unit of increase in the ratings equals a 1lb rise in the weights. The top rated horse in each race will carry the most weight, with each of his competitors then receiving a weight allowance.
Say we have Horse X who is rated 75, and Horse Y who has an OR of 80, Horse Y would carry 5lbs more in weight than Horse X. This SHOULD mean that each of these horses’ chances are levelled out, but in reality this is often not the case – thankfully for us punters.
Calculating Ratings
After every race, the handicapper will review each runner’s performance and adjust the rating accordingly. If a horse wins, or beats rivals with a higher rating, their rating will increase. If a horse consistently performs below expectation, or is very well beaten in a race, their rating will fall. If the run matches expectation (i.e. the 3rd highest rated horse finishes 3rd in the race) then the rating will remain unchanged.
Value in Handicap Races
Correctly rating (and therefore weighting) every horse in every handicap race is, as you might imagine, not an easy job. The likelihood of a race being an even competition across all runners is extremely unlikely. This is good news for punters though, as it creates opportunities to pick out overpriced odds in the market. The reason the handicapper’s job is so difficult is due to the many other factors other than weight that can affect a horse’s performance on any given day, such as ground conditions, field size and stall draws in flat races. Other scenarios where the handicapper can get it wrong include:
- Young and unexposed horses can improve much more rapidly than the handicapper can react
- Horses returning after a long absence – rating may be outdated
- Horses taking a step up or back in trip – as the rating will reflect ability over a certain distance usually
- Changes in surfaces – turf and all-weather performances will differ
- Grade droppers and ‘plot jobs’ – trainer tactics
Using Handicap Mark when Betting
There are many ways we can use ORs to make more informed betting decisions, as previously stated often the most value is found in handicap races, both over jumps and on the flat. Here are some ways handicap marks can be used to spot if a horse is good value in the market:
- Look at the last winning mark – one of the best signs to look out for is a horse’s rating the last time they won a race. If they are below that mark now, it can be an encouraging sign.
- Look at peak career mark – if a horse is running at a mark considerably lower than his career high rating, this could be something to consider – though many other factors should also be considered as to why this is – age, injury etc.
- Assess potential for improvement – rapidly improving young or unexposed horses can escape the handicapper’s grasp and be treated too leniently. This also applies to horses changing trip or surface type.
- Apprentice jockeys – Young, inexperienced jockeys can claim back some of the weight penalty applied to the horse they are riding, again with the idea of improving competitiveness.
- Look at the market – lastly and most importantly, compare to market odds. Is the value actually present to make the handicap mark attractive?
Common Betting Mistakes in Handicap Races
Whilst handicap races can be good for spotting value and picking out big price winners, many punters can also fall victim to the same mistakes when betting on these races:
- Over-reacting to small rating changes (is a 1lb change really going to make much difference?)
- Ignoring jockey weight claims
- Blindly backing horses that appear well handicapped without considering other factors – ground conditions, stall draw etc.
So, is it Possible to beat the Handicapper?
As impossible a task as it is, the BHA’s handicappers are generally very good at what they do. Most horses that have a number of career races under their belt are often accurately rated. That being said, due to the sheer volume of horses running and meetings daily, they do slip up every now and again.You don’t beat the handicapper by spotting decline, you beat them by spotting improvement before it becomes obvious. It’s very important to remember to include other variables AS WELL AS handicaps when trying to pick out a winner.