The main aim of my ‘Horses to Watch’ series is beating the market start price (SP) by finding value in the betting market the night before the race. I use a combination of statistical analysis and AI value-modelling to find a horses’ implied probability (% chance of winning the race based on stats) and compare that to current odds – looking for horses that are overvalued. I focus on the lesser-glamorous races (i.e Class 4s & 5s etc) as that’s where the value often is found – often because these races receive less betting money than the bigger races, so the market is less volatile. Whilst the aim of this game is not primarily profit, statistical variance suggests that if you can consistently find value in the markets (by beating the SP) you will be profitable.
Story of the month:
- 26 selections, 16 of which the market SP was beaten, representing a 62% strike rate.
- The selections had average odds of 9.63 (~17/2)
- On average, the early odds beat the start price by 23.93% across the month
- Two selections beat the market SP by at least 100%
- SWISS ACE was picked out at a price of 17.00 (16/1) and went off at 7.50 (13/2), 126.67% value found – unfortunately no return
- SAGE GREEN was picked out at odds of 9.00 (8/1) and went off at 4.50 (7/2), 100% value found – picked up a place
- Four winners at 13/2 (7/2 SP), 15/2 (16/1 SP), 8/1 (11/2 SP) and 10/1 (12/1 SP)
- Twelve places including prices at 12/1 (6/1 SP), 14/1 (10/1 SP) and 22/1 (18/1 SP)
- This month saw a rare instance where the market SP odds saw a greater profit than the early odds, with 16.9 units v 15.52 units. Either way it was a very successful month thanks to a very strong end to the month.
