The main aim of my ‘Horses to Watch’ series is beating the market start price (SP) by finding value in the betting market the night before the race. I use a combination of statistical analysis and AI value-modelling to find a horses’ implied probability (% chance of winning the race based on stats) and compare that to current odds – looking for horses that are overvalued. I focus on the lesser-glamorous races (i.e Class 4s & 5s etc) as that’s where the value often is found – often because these races receive less betting money than the bigger races, so the market is less volatile. Whilst the aim of this game is not primarily profit, statistical variance suggests that if you can consistently find value in the markets (by beating the SP) you will be profitable.
Story of the month:
- 15 picks, 8 of which the SP was beaten (1 non-runner)
- Average odds of 11.50 (~21/2)
- On average, the selections beat the market SP by 34.5% across the month
- 2 picks found over 100% value, with 153.33% (18/1 into 13/2 or 19.00 into 7.50) and 142.86% (16/1 into 6/1 or 17.00 into 7.00) respectively
- 3 winners at 10/1 (6/1 SP), 11/2 (4/1 SP) and 11/2 (6/1 SP)
- 3 places at 18/1 (18/1 SP), 12/1 (7/1 SP) and 15/2 (11/1 SP)
- Profit for the month was 46% higher at time of write up compared to market start price – 6.85 units v 4.7 units profit
