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The main aim of my ‘Horses to Watch’ series is beating the market start price (SP) by finding value in the betting market the night before the race. I use a combination of statistical analysis and AI value-modelling to find a horses’ implied probability (% chance of winning the race based on stats) and compare […]

SHOESHINE BOY – Ayr 13:15 13/2* It was clear that his first run of the season was needed for race fitness, as he was much more competitive second time around at the start of November when 3rd of 10 at Hexham when 14/1, though he was some way from the winner. No stranger to winning

Introduction The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a Grade 1 National Hunt hurdle race in Great Britain which is open to horses aged four years or older. It is run at Newcastle over a distance of about 2 miles and 1 furlong (2 miles and 190 yards, or 3,392 metres), and during its running there are nine hurdles to be jumped. The race is the

SECRET DES DIEUX – Newbury 12:45 @ 12/1* Aside from the complete outsider in the field here Mighty Bandit, you could make a case for any of the runners in what looks to be a very competitive race. What appeals to me about this 5-year-old is how comfortably he won on chase debut at Fakenham

GRANPA GER – Ludlow 13:05 @ 15/2* A consistent performer all year, and an encouraging 2nd on stable debut when 16/1 at Hereford earlier this month. 1st and 3rd in that race have since gone on to score, so going by form he should be in with every chance here if he can replicate what

I’M A STARMAN – 15:10 Warwick @ 14/1* Veteran 12 year old with 8 wins over hurdles to his name, including a course and distance win just 6 months ago shows he’s still got some class left in him. Completed an impressive 4 wins a row between April and June of this year, though the

SEA WARRIOR – 13:30 Exeter 16/1* First run in over a year here, and is unplaced in both starts over hurdles but has certainly wasn’t uncompetitive. 4th of 12 on hurdle debut last May at Newton Abbot was far from a bad result, and he finished midfield last October at Chepstow when a respectable 9

SAINT ARVANS – Wetherby 12:15, 8/1* Inconsistent form this season has led to this veteran gelding slipping down the handicap, almost to a point last time put when he nearly sprung a surprise when 2nd of 6 at 8/1 last time out at Kelso. He is just 1lb higher than that mark here. There was

A trainer’s Run To Form (RTF) figure is a metric created by and visible on Racing Post race cards. It is an extension of the RPR (Racing Post Ratings), comparing how a horse actually ran to the RPR given to the horse before the race. RPR are calculated based on the horse’s form, race conditions