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TWILIGHT MADNESS – 13:05 Southwell – 11/2* EW Course and distance winner and this 8-year-old is striking at 25% on the all-weather. Scored two wins in a week in early December at Lingfield and Wolverhampton, though both of us were over a furlong further than he will race here. Will be looking to start the […]

SHESUPINCOURT – 16:02 Leicester – 14/1* EW Would probably prefer softer ground given her two wins over hurdles have come on soft and heavy ground, though she has had some competitive runs on quicker ground, with two second places on good ground last spring. Has been disappointing so far this year, but as a result

SUNDAY SOLDIER – 14:20 Lingfield – 10/1* EW This looks a wildly open race on paper, with many you could make a case for at a bigger price. This mare is striking at over 30% over hurdles, and despite no win since April 2024, she appears to hold the best value currently in the market.

The main aim of my ‘Horses to Watch’ series is beating the market start price (SP) by finding value in the betting market the night before the race. I use a combination of statistical analysis and AI value-modelling to find a horses’ implied probability (% chance of winning the race based on stats) and compare

JOLIE BAIE – 14:22 Warwick – 16/1* EW Most of her runs (and all of her successes) have come from distances under 3m, however her last two runs in races with a distance over 3m she has finished 3rd and 2nd at Wincanton and Huntingdon respectively, so the step back up in trip alone is

MAGNOLIA – Kelso 14:39 – 6/1* Disappointing last time out when nowhere as the 2/1 favourite at Musselburgh, but before that won back-to-back races at this track to kickstart her season in style. As a result she is carrying top weight by quite some distance, but this is eased by Joshua Thompson claiming 7lbs who

TADREEB – Lingfield 13:00 – 13/2* Striking at impressive 25% on the all-weather, what is even more encouraging here is that all his all-weather victories have come at Lingfield. Slightly inconsistent form of late but dropping back down into Class 5 company is another positive. It looks a wide open race on paper, but I

VON KROLOCK – Southwell 13:22 4/1* Despite already being the market favourite at the time of writing, the form this yard is in of late is enough to suggest the current price available is of good value. Winning nicely at Wolverhampton last time out, it hasn’t taken long to get off the mark for James

REAL GOLD – Lingfield 11:12 16/1* Given the fact this filly has been sent off at odds of at least 150/1 in all four career starts so far, this may sound strange to say the odds of 16/1 provide good value at the moment. However, in her two races in Class 5 maidens she ran

HALF TRACK – Carlisle 12:40 15/2* The veteran of the field here, who was well backed in his last run out which was also at Carlisle, going off at 9/2 before unseating his mount during the race. This season’s form has been uninspiring so far to say the least, but dropping back down into Class